Who To Watch: James Jones
(Green Bay Packers, Wide Receiver)
Week 1
Every year fantasy owners get burned at the wide receiver position. They draft wide-outs based on physical attributes and potential. Now, wide receivers can have the right build with height, size, and speed. However, fantasy owners must focus on the basics. Physically, guys can look unstoppable, but, statistically, they can be a fantasy nightmare. Remember, as fantasy players, we must continually focus our attention to the statistical side of the game. This doesn't mean we become ranking slaves and depend on any player's projected scores. In order for receivers to be productive in the fantasy world, owners must focus on two major factors at the WR position. The best fantasy wide receivers are usually apart of a balanced offensive scheme; they have a quarterback that stays consistent throughout the season.
This may sound pee-wee, but football is a team sport. Unlike every other sport, no single player can be successful with his teammates. How does this relate to fantasy football? How can a running back be successful without a solid offensive line? And like running backs, wide-outs are even more dependent on their teammates. A receiver, that is not the only offensive weapon for his team, can be extremely successful, especially if his team has a solid running game. This is why the offensive scheme for a wide receiver is so critical. An offense cannot be pass or run dominant. There must be a balance in the offense in order for it to be successful. Throughout the league, there are plenty of prime examples of terrible, unbalanced offenses. The one offense that continuously lets down fantasy owners is the bad, pass-first offense in Detroit. Year after yea Detroit never seems to develop a solid running game, which kills Calvin Johnson's chances of having a dominate fantasy season. Without a run threat, the defense is able to force double coverage on Johnson on almost every play. This makes him have fewer targets and more injury prone, which is not very good when your nickname is "Megatron". This is why Calvin's fantasy value has been dropping over the past few seasons.
Along with a balanced offense, receivers must have a confidently consistent quarterback. If you look at multiple fantasy ranking boards like I do, you'll notice that each fantasy expert lists the same top 5 WRs. Have you every wondered why that is? If so, I advise you to take a look at the top 5 QBs list. You'll see that they all play on the same teams. Coincidence? No, no it's not. These players are successful for a reason; it's because of the chemistry between the receiver and his quarterback. Look at the success of QB-WR matches like, Rodgers and Nelson, Luck and Hilton, Romo and Bryant, Big Ben and Brown - just to name a few.
If I'm going to give you a few of the leagues best QB-WR matches, then allow me to list some of my overrated matches. Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. will not reach the same success as last season. The Giants are yet another perfect example of a team that is completely pass-dependent. They have a very mediocre running game, which means a lot of targets but not a lot of connections this season between Eli and OBJ. Another is Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson; I've already explained how Detroit's offense is a fantasy nightmare, so I won't go through that again.
Now, this is one of the most important parts of this article. These are the fantasy receivers that many "experts" in the fantasy world have ranked too high. They are a fantasy risk to start every week. Receivers like these are the reasons why fantasy owners look great before the season but don't even make the playoffs. Allen Robinson - great talent, big bodied, huge potential, but he's playing for the wrong team. His quarterback (starting QB of the Jacksonville Jaguars), Blake Bortles, is ranked lower than Johnny Menziel, who did't even start at the beginning of the season. And somehow Allen Robinson was ranked in the top 15 of WRs?
It all comes down to who is throwing the ball. Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, and, even the veteran playmaker, AJ Green, are a few of many prime examples of amazing wide receivers that are horrible fantasy players. Why would I say this? Look at the Quarterbacks for these teams; look at their offensive scheme. That's where the problems are for these guys. Buffalo is a run-first offense; therefore, Sammy Watkins is not going to get the amount of targets he deserves. As for Amari Cooper, AJ Green, and the many other all star wide-outs, look at the QB problem in Oakland and Cincinnati. Teams like, Cleveland, Buffalo, Washington, Jacksonville, and Oakland, have never had a star receiver live up to their fantasy expectations.
The type of wide receiver you are looking for, as a fantasy owner, is the guy who is going to be productive week in and week out. The perfect example of what I'm talking about is the fantasy value and productivity of WR James Jones. During his career in Green Bay, Jones was a sold WR3 with WR2 type of numbers. When he left Green Bay for Oakland, Jones went undrafted in all fantasy drafts and, throughout the season, was a whole 1% owned. This year the Packers lose Jordy Nelson (top 5 WR) to injury before the first game. The Green Bay Packers and the ex-Packer sign a 1 year, $870,000 contract to be Rodger's new (but old) receiver. The Packers are well-known for their 3-wide sets. To go opposite of DeVante Adams, Jones will the other sideline receiver. With Randall Cobb in the slot on most plays, look for James Jones to be a deep threat.
The main question now for most fantasy owners is "is James Jones a top 20 Wide-Out?" I say absolutely yes! Rodgers loves to share the ball, throwing it to every receiver on the Packers' depth chart. And Jones already has what a lot of the receivers in Green Bay don't have, number 12's TRUST. Look for a lot of deep balls, 3rd and long routes, and end zone corner throws. In week 1 and week 2, James Jones has given the fantasy world a small taste of the type of numbers he will be putting up this season. Going 4 receptions on 4 targets and 1 touchdown in week 1 and 1 reception on 3 targets with 1 touchdown in week 2, Jones has shown his value to fantasy owners and gained Rodgers' trust for the coming weeks. I expect him to get more targets in the coming weeks and plenty more red zone looks from the future Hall of Famer. James Jones is an under-valued wide receiver that has the potential to have a top 10 fantasy season. With Jordy Nelson out for the season, Jones is the favorite number 2 option for Aaron Rodgers and a solid, fantasy WR2 this season.
-Who Else To Watch in Week 1-
Carson Palmer (ARZ - QB) - The Arizona QB is underrated and has a top 5 NFL offense in the Cardinals. With a wild and talented group on running backs, excellent wideouts in Fitz and Brown, and a good defense to keep the team confident, Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals will be a great team this year and full of fantastic fantasy players. He will be a sneaky grab in your fantasy draft this season. Look for him to surprise everyone in fantasy sports. Palmer is dirt cheap in Daily Fantasy Sports.
Dion Lewis (NE - RB) - The Patriots are horrible for helping their running backs in fantasy. Their production has always been average, but for this year, look for Dion Lewis to have an outstanding year. Being the No. 1 RB on an offense that is coming into a season angry and hungry to win and dominate every team they play, look for Lewis to become a top 10 fantasy RB this season. Average price in DFS, he should be a great pickup throughout the year.
Tevin Coleman (ATL - RB) - As the Falcons' No. 1 back, Coleman will be a great RB for fantasy owners this year. The Falcons are notorious for leaning on their run game a ton at the beginning of the year. Ryan, Jones, and Coleman should be the fantasy stars for Atlanta this season. Keep in mind that DeVonta Freeman is a great handcuff (add and stash) RB for all Coleman owners. Coleman is a decent play in DFS, but I'd wait to start him in Daily - see how he is used in that offense.
DeVante Adams (GB - WR) - With the loss of Jordy Nelson, DeVante Adams is the next man up. Possibly sharing the WR2 targets with James Jones, Adams is a boom-or-bust play. Although he is younger, faster, and more talented that James Jones, Aaron Rodgers tends to throw to the receivers he's comfortable with. Adams is a definite add, but I'd stash him and wait to see how the targets with be shared in a pass-dominate offense.
By: Cameron Black
@GBCam_Black
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